GEO Investing

When a stock of yours is doing well, one of the hardest things you will face is deciding if you should make a decision to take short-term profits, especially if you strongly believe the stock has much more potential in the long run. But it gets even worse. Sometimes we make decisions to hold onto stocks longer than their expiration dates because of the “what if it goes up” thoughts that creep into our minds

You want to hold it, but on the same token, you are not being fair to yourself when your discipline promotes a making-money strategy. 

Now, I could have just as well started this post…one of the hardest decisions you’ll have to contemplate as an investor is to let a stock with great potential sit in your portfolio for a very long time. You have faith, after your hours of due diligence, that it will give you great annualized returns in 5, 10 or 20 years, but what if it doesn’t happen on your timeline?  Would the capital that would have been made available with a more swing-style trade be better deployed in another investment? And should you even preoccupy yourself with these thoughts?

Last week, we said that we’d be addressing some of the most common shortcomings that plague investors, and provided a cursory overview of one aspect of the investment process that is often overlooked – deep research. We’ll continue with the “investor oversights and failures” theme as we move through May and June, investigating additional facets that are pain points that must be addressed to become successful.

As we continue to ruminate over the next topic, the short term versus long term investing dilemma, we thought that a good prelude to that would be to take a look at some investment scenarios that fit in with that discussion. We’ve covered the topic before, but there is much more to expound upon on the subject that might help us reach some conclusions on the best approach investors should take, or maybe even a blended approach

Personally, in the first part of my full time investing career, much of my focus was in trying to find great companies in the meat of their growth cycles, holding them through that growth cycle and then selling them when the cycles were coming to an end. It was a great formula that worked fantastically for me.

Investing mistakes are common. They are made every day by thousands of investors looking to make a quick buck on YouTube hearsay, a Twitter tip, a Reddit forum discussion or “TikTok guru” just out of college. This leads to poor choices, leaving them vulnerable to misinformation, biases, and market volatility. It ultimately jeopardizes their financial goals.

Basically, when it comes down to it, there are many corners of the internet that prey on the inexperience of new investors, or the apathy of those who don’t see the value of proper due diligence (DD) to confirm, for themselves, if a certain stock is a legitimate investment, or just one that fits within their investment style.

Failure to perform proper DD and document findings is one of the foremost failures that investors face. Unfortunately, it is not the only mistake that is often made. Others include focusing too much on short-term gains, poor portfolio risk management, lack of buy and sell discipline and emotional biases.  Over the coming weeks, we’ll address some of these specifically, but today we are going to stick with the research theme since that is the one that in most cases kickstarts the whole process of finding the right stocks.

I was reflecting on a past GeoWire Weekly post from November 2022 where I addressed some factors that made Ufp Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPT) a standout case study in what can happen when company management values maintaining the integrity of capital structure while growing revenue and EPS organically and through acquisitions – UFPT, a designer and custom manufacturer of components, subassemblies, products and packaging utilizing highly specialized foams, films, and plastics primarily for the medical market, made eight acquisitions since 1993.

The company relied on its strong balance sheet to minimally increase its share count as EPS trended higher from 2004, when its bottom line went positive, to 2022, the first time its adjusted EPS broke $3 per share.

I no longer avoid investing in Canada based companies. When you screen for stocks to buy, you might have a desired set of criteria on a quantitative, qualitative and geographical basis.

If you isolate your screen to Canada, natural resource companies will dominate your list. If you love to invest in these types of companies, many of which are in the early stages of development and specialize in mineral and oil exploration and extraction, you’d be in luck.

Canada is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world as the global leader in potash production and a top five global producer of diamonds, gemstones, gold, indium, niobium, platinum group metals, titanium concentrate and uranium. Canada is also the world’s fourth-largest primary aluminum producer, and has the third-largest oil deposits after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.

As far back as I can remember, I put an outsized focus on special situation stock investing because I knew that in some instances, the rewards I could reap from certain outlier circumstances would be worth the research. And it just made investing more fun than a standard value investing approach.

I originally used a written list that laid out a framework for what I was looking for on a daily basis across press releases and Security Exchange Commission (SEC) filings at SEC.gov. Yes, written… Remember I am old!

Later, when I started Geoinvesting, each member of my team had a physical printout of the list so it could be readily visible as an outsized 8.5 x 11 inch post-it note.

Regardless of what position one held at Geo, I made sure that each team member was exposed to the our research process to some degree, with the aid of checklists, even if the list became pinned underneath a paperweight, taped to one of the many whiteboards I had floating on each wall when we used to work in “offices”, or handed back and forth between my colleagues if one went missing prior to a new printout.

When you think of individuals such Carl Icahn, Ronald O. Perelman and Nelson Peltz, you might think of their knack for business acumen, successful fund management and even philanthropy. However, there is one aspect of these personalities’ exploits that might get overshadowed by the overarching themes of their achievements – a specialty in turning businesses around.  

The reason it is a specialty is because not everyone has the means or frankly, the guts, to put plans in place to take a failing company and turn it around. 

Last week’s foray into the world of executives and portfolio managers at activist fund 180 Degree Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:TURN), Kevin Rendino (CEO) and Daniel Wolfe (President), touched on the reasons why companies consider and ultimately agree to shift the innards of their businesses around. In the end, it really comes down to making them attractive enough for investors to put their money into. We’d suggest that you catch up with that column after reading what we have lined up today.

So, speaking of turnaround specialists, we wanted to bring attention to a few famous ones who excelled at buying or taking a stake in underperforming or struggling companies to help them achieve profitability in various ways. 

We’ll touch upon notable investments made by the turnaround specialist investors above.

It’s true. There are a lot of investors and hedge fund managers in the realm of microcap investing that have breathlessly echoed what we have been saying about the advantages of investing in the space for some time. We’ve also been saying that the selloff in many microcap stocks is overdone and it’s time to really pay attention to where the growth and value are.

Investment ideas don’t have to be screaming in your face at close range. Sometimes it is nuanced, which is why we are so keyed in on deeper research, be it by virtue of idea generation or education, and connecting with the content of peer analysis and discoveries outside the walls of GeoInvesting.

So, for the third week in a row, and on the heels of last week’s highlight video reel of our conversation with Vittorio Bertolini, we are focusing on another professional who publishes third party content – Seeking Alpha Contributor, The Institute for Innovative Development (IID), who endeavors to be:

“…an educational and business development catalyst for growth-oriented financial advisors and progressive financial services executives who are determined to grow their firms in a business environment of accelerating business and cultural change.”

As you might expect and as conveyed by its business model, IID’s columns are intended to be learning fodder for professionals interested in the perspectives of those in networking and business activities to find commonalities across a spectrum of next-generation investment instruments.