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A Chat with Dakota From Left Field Investing on Cipher Pharma; Key March 2024 Open Forum Highlights [GeoWire Weekly No. 127]
*Must Listen*
Highly respected financial Substack newsletter writer, Dakota Quint (Left Field Investing) (@LeftField_FHRS), joined me and my analyst, Jan Švenda, to discuss Model Portfolio Holding Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (OOTC:CPHRF) (CPH.TO), a specialty pharmaceutical company in Canada that offers an array of skin care products, notably in the areas of acne and keratosis.
Our bullish coverage was initially highlighted in 2 articles, here and here on 9/27/2022 and 10/10/2022, respectively. Even though shares are up 152% from the first of those analyses, much more gas could be left in the tank.
The company reported earnings last week, helping the stock rise 13% for the week. Since Dakota knows about Cipher intimately, we thought it would be a good idea to chat with him about the company to get his opinion on how the company stands to benefit as the licensee of Moberg Pharma’s AB, (MOB.ST) topical nail fungus treatment, MOB-015, in Canada. While the drug is still not approved to be sold in Canada or the U.S., it has been approved to be sold in 10 European countries.
In Addition To Price Targets, Four Major Takeaways from the conversation include:
1) The size of the toenail fungus market opportunity in Canada for Cipher and how it might be bigger than current estimates.
2) The potential market expansion and competitive advantage of Moberg’s toenail fungus treatment due to its effectiveness and faster patient-visible results compared to existing treatments.
3) Cipher acquisition strategy and related tidbits about this strategy from the fourth quarter earnings call, including the asset that they are considering. An acquisition could be imminent.
4) The discussion of risks, including market acceptance and execution risks, alongside the opportunities for significant financial upside for both Moberg and Cipher, should the product achieve its expected market penetration and success.
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This week, we are also bringing you some of the topics that were covered during our March 13, 2024 Open Forum. It was a long one, so we are focusing on key moments of the monthly review, such as:
- A discussion on some of February’s call to actions.
- Updated commentary on Konatel Inc (OOTC:KTEL). Bullish thesis still firmly intact.
- Addressing a GeoInvesting member’s suggestion to look at a microcap company in the health and wellness industry.
- A stock added to the Run to One Dollar Model Portfolio (full report to be published tomorrow morning), and another no longer deemed a timely favorite.
- A classic Information Arbitrage short selling case study on Addvantage Technologies Group, (NASDAQ:AEY).
- An infrastructure play that pays a healthy dividend. Value trap assumptions may be too pessimistic.
- *NEW STOCK COVERAGE* How the AI movement might align with cybersecurity and data storage company Falconstor Software, Inc. (OOTC:FALC).
- A portfolio protection retrospective on Wavedancer, Inc. (NASDAQ:WAVD)’s CEO’s moves to buy the company’s code modernization business.
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