GEO Investing

With 3 million miles of mainline and other pipelines that link natural gas production areas and storage facilities with consumers, there is no shortage of the need to monitor, maintain and protect the various components that make up this complex network of energy transmission.

Herein lies one of the sweet spots for Acorn Energy Inc (OOTC:ACFN), a company we cover in our research and in which we added the stock to one of our Model Portfolios  back on December 10, 2020 after the company’s CEO, Jan Loeb, purchased a lot of stock on December 8, 2019. This in fact was the first time we noticed the company since we sat down with management at an LD Micro Conference a few years ago, and were actually able to schedule and hold a Fireside Chat with Mr. Loeb the prior day! It should be noted that he has been systematically buying shares for the past 3 years, with the most notable transaction occurring in 2019, showing investors his continued and unwavering confidence in the company.

I’d like to talk about an important theme I’ve been mulling over recently, and is related to two new PodClips I recorded over the weekend, which can be listened to at the bottom of my commentary.

Markets are crashing and correcting right now and everybody’s talking about stocks getting revalued to adjust for the new environment, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that you need to panic sell out of your favorite stocks that might be going through a rough patch. In the first clip, I talk about a process of examining the staying power of your current portfolio and how to find new opportunities in the current market environment.

Next on the hot seat is Net Medical Xpress Solutions Inc. (OTC:NMXS), a company engaged in providing solutions to the telemedicine industry.
As with many other microcap stocks that come into our internal momentum screening system, we more often swipe left than right, as most fail our initial litmus test of adhering to the conditions that allow it to enter the next phase of our analysis. We did manage to execute a tepid swipe right with NMXS, a stock we had never covered, but were intrigued with it, when at $0.09, it popped up on our screener after it reported strong Q1 2022 financial results on May 4, 2022. Since then, it’s risen to $0.41, a 355% move.

The stocks in our microcap Model Portfolios might get caught up in the capitulative mayhem in a macro sense, but we know that their growth outlooks, combined with their cheap valuations, will make for a recovery that we think will blow the pants off of their mega cap counterparts when this new cloud of dust settles. 

To distill it down just a tad, it’s easier to double a $10 or $20 million revenue base than to double a greater than billion dollar valuation. Furthermore, the potential drop in stock prices of these large companies is steep. They’ve already grown to near their max potential but many still have P/Es in excess of 50x to 100x, or non-applicable P/Es because they’re losing money, which in a literal sense means there is no bottom to the stock’s price until you get to the value of ip, customer base, plants, property and equipment. It won’t take much for the latter to crumble, nor will it take much for the former to excel.

Now, we believe the pendulum has swung to where earnings and P/E ratios will matter again. Hopefully, it will be the dominating factor in valuing companies as we transition from this bear market into the next bull trend. That’s how the environment was set up for the first 20 years of my career, where high-quality undervalued microcap companies were in high demand.