A fund manager in the ‘90s described biopharma investing as walking through a minefield blindfolded.
Twenty years later, biopharma IS STILL a minefield, but investors now can peek clearly through the blindfold. SanaCurrents’ analytics-based sentiment ratings enable investors to build a select portfolio by providing tiered odds for success.
Life science investing always has been a roller coaster ride, as well as a minefield, usually with more deep dips than gradual climbs. SanaCurrents (“SC”) was established to identify which stocks, valued entirely on the promise of developing a new, novel drug, had the best chance for value appreciation.
Unlike a Merck, Medtronic or Pfizer that are partly valued on sales, small biopharma and device stocks rise and fall on how well the companies advance new therapies. To develop a new therapy for patients, companies must deliver a drug that is a step up from the current standard of care, presents a value proposition for clinicians, and then move it to the marketplace with smart design of its clinical trials.
In the last several years, SanaCurrents developed a set of objective data points related to clinical testing and the value proposition of drugs and devices in development.
SanaCurrents applies these data points to assess how likely a company will be able to advance a drug or device, helping us to determine our decision to potentially buy the stock, which we disclose to members.
The data points provide the foundation for SanaCurrents’ proprietary analytics-based model, which identifies the therapies and companies SanaCuurents believes most likely to increase in value prior to a pivotal announcement. Examples of pivotal announcements would be the results of a clinical study or the publication of data in an influential scientific journal.
In the last two years, companies and therapies followed by SanaCurrents have outperformed comparable biopharma indices.
During the second quarter of 2018, three SanaCurrents companies announced results of phase II clinical studies; SanaCurrents issued calls to action on the three companies 21 to 60 days prior to the data announcements. On the days that the phase II results were announced, the three stocks increased 77%, 79% and 88%, respectively.
Sana is the imperative form of the verb sano in Latin, which means “to heal or to cure now.” SanaCurrents tracks the important medicines of tomorrow, which SanaCurrents believes are likely to advance the fastest to patients.
SEE SOME OF SanaCurrents’ CASE STUDIES BELOW.
What were some of the key approaches that led to SanaCurrents’ successful case studies?
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We Find The Opportunities
SanaCurrents does all the hard work by sifting through the hundreds of biotech, pharma, and medical device stocks.
We Analyze The Opportunities
Relying on objective data points, SanaCurrents weighs multiple factors to determine the strengths and weaknesses of key therapies in development – binary events, performance of previous drug trials, past FDA actions.
We Process Potential Catalysts
The data points provide the foundation for SanaCurrents’ proprietary analytics, which identify therapies and companies SanaCurrents thinks are most likely to increase in value following important milestones and events.
We Generate a Probability Sentiment
SanaCurrents produces a probability sentiment –Superior, Pivotal or Advantageous – for success on a specific date. Only the sentiments that we feel are worth pursuing are given to you. Sana believes these sentiments will help you make a decision ahead of time and realize gains on a specific date.
California-based company Zogenix observed the drug fenfluramine, which had problematic side effects in obesity, likely could work to prevent epileptic seizures. At a time when GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) and Insys Therapeutics (INSY) were advancing cannabidiol (CBD)-based drugs to treat childhood epilepsy, Zogenix launched a 5-year study of fenfluramine, also known as ZX008. The study goal was to reduce the frequency of seizures in childhood epilepsy. Like GW, Zogenix narrowed the patient pool by testing fenfluramine only in patients with either Dravet syndrome or Lennox Gastauts syndrome. ZX008, with a different mechanism of action, subsequently outperformed the GW drug, Epidiolex.
SanaCurrents evaluated previous fenfluramine studies early last year through its analytics platform. On June 9, 2017, SanaCurrents forecast ZGNX’s first phase III trial of ZX008 had a high probability for positive results. ZGNX shares traded at $14.63 on June 9.
When ZGNX announced strong phase III results on September 29, 2017, its shares shot up to $35.29, reflecting a 141% return from a June 9 investment. SanaCurrents made an additional forecast in June this year that ZX008 again would post positive results in a second pivotal study completed on 12 July, 2018. ZGNX shares climbed to $62.23 on 13 July, up from $45.63 the day before.
In June 2018, the FDA approved GWPH’s Epidiolex as a treatment for childhood epilepsy. Zogenix operated under the radar as GW and Inysys gained headlines for its novel cannabidiol approach, but the ZGNX study results validated the company’s drug and yielded high returns – for the investor who “removed the blindfold” in 2017. GWPH now has a $4.2 billion market cap, while ZGNX owns a $2.15 billion market cap. As ZX008 moves closer to approval and market launch, expect ZGNX to narrow the gap.
What exactly did this mean for investors in ZGNX shares?
If they invested $10,000, in 13 months they would have netted $32,000 after SanaCurrents’ initial forecast.
Dynavax’s (NASDAQ:DVAX) BLA application for its Hepatitis B vaccine first received a complete response letter from the FDA in 2013 and then experienced further regulatory delays between 2015-2016. Some of the FDA requests involved the vaccine’s overall immunogenicity data, while others related to how the BLA was filed, not necessarily regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine.
With the setbacks, the stock slid backward for several years as DVAX worked to respond.
SanaCurrents identified on May 3, 2017 that DVAX and the FDA had ironed out their differences and forecast an advisory committee would recommend approval of the vaccine when it voted at a meeting scheduled for July 28, 2017.
DVAX shares traded at $5.50 on May 3. After the 12-1 vote to approve the vaccine, shares climbed to $15.85, a 188% return.
What exactly did this mean for investors in DVAX shares?
If they invested $10,000, in 3 months they would have netted $18,000 after SanaCurrents’ initial forecast.
MyoKardia (NASDAQ:MYOK), a leading precision cardiovascular medicine company, reported good data during 2015-16 on its drug, mavacamten, to treat hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), a condition that reduces the rate of heart contractions because of the thickening of surrounding heart muscles.
Mavacamten, an oral, small molecule, modulates the function of cardiac myosin, the motor protein that drives heart muscle contraction. After MYOK initially proved the safety of mavacamten, the FDA in 2016 granted orphan drug designation for mavacamten to treat symptomatic oHCM, a subset of HCM.
MYOK was set to report results of a phase II trial in the fall of 2017, which primarily needed to measure ventricular outflow in 12 patients. Previous studies indicated mavacamten could improve the outflow. SanaCurrents forecast a positive trial outcome on May 22, 2017 when MYOK shares were at $13.40.
The results were announced August 7, 2017. MYOK share rose to $36.20.
What exactly did this mean for investors in MYOK shares?
If they invested $10,000, in 4 months they would have netted at least $11,600 after SanaCurrents’ initial forecast.
Advantageous Probability Sentiment
A future catalyst announcement we believe is not likely to be negative, but supporting data from clinical studies may be inconsistent. Efficient treatment options also may already exist for patients. As a result, the market’s reaction to a positive catalyst could be minimal.
Pivotal Probability Sentiment
The drug or device typically addresses an unmet medical need with strong data from the company’s clinical studies supporting continued advancement or approval by the FDA. We believe the company or FDA announcement more than likely will be positive.
Superior Probability Sentiment
The drug or device offers a promising therapy for a disease with poor, if any, treatment options. The drug or device has received strong support from key opinion leaders, primarily because of excellent supporting data from clinical studies. We believe the upcoming company or FDA announcement is likely to be positive.
GET OUR HIGHEST PROBABILITY SENTIMENT IDEAS NOW
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Before starting SanaCurrents, William (Bill) Langbein spent more than 20 years as a life science business journalist, with stops at California Medicine, In Vivo and Reuters Health. During that time, he wrote on genomic discoveries, the transition of the pharmaceutical companies to rely more on biologics, and the dawn of precision medicine, through which most drug developers came to recognize a one-drug-for-all approach would no longer work.
One constant truth he learned is smaller companies deliver the most innovation and highest value to patients and investors. Yet because of the inherent volatility of biopharma and medical devices, small companies typically fly under the radar of investors. The emergence of precision medicine, however, reduces the volatility of small cap companies and increases the potential for strong returns. SanaCurrents was founded to identify the undervalued therapies that would benefit patients and investors the most.
Shortly after SanaCurrents was started, Philip Greyling joined while he was a graduate student. Philip received an undergraduate degree in molecular biology. While most biologists are trained with few or no business tools, Philip Greyling completed a professional science master’s (PSM) program, which provided advanced training in innovative scientific techniques while also developing complementary business skills in management and analytics.
The partners then began examining the valuations…
From that work, the partners developed proprietary analytics based on objective data points that can be applied to any drug or device in development. In the past two years, SanaCurrents has applied its analytics model to invest in biopharma and device companies
SanaCurrents’ first forecast related to Kite Pharma’s CAR-T immunotherapy, KTE-C19. SanaCurrents predicted in late 2016 Kite would announce positive results of its pivotal trial of KTE-C19. The stock jumped 24% on the day of the announcement to $55.17. Approximately one year later, Gilead purchased Kite for $180 per share.
SanaCurrents provides its analytics model on a subscription basis. The partners, based in California, invest according to the model.
Since we have no shortage of ideas, we issue 3 actionable reports per month, one around the beginning of the month, on in the middle, and one at about the end of each month. You will receive your alerts via email.
Each Call to Action is accompanied by a Probability Sentiment. You will have access to this analysis via your GeoInvesting.com login that you create when you subscribe to the product. GeoInvesting has a members-only area specifically designed only for SanaCurrents members.
One of the most important parts of this service is the Probability Sentiment. It is a measure of our conviction that a company will reach a specific milestone, or a substantial decision will be reached by a regulatory agency – actions we believe will decisively move a stock to the upside. As of now, we only issue positive Probability Sentiments under three categories – Superior, Pivotal and Advantageous. As part of the Probability Sentiment, you will receive a summary of why we issued a call to action on the company, the Edge we believe verifies anticipated stock appreciation, what the key catalysts are, and the dates or date ranges for the catalysts to occur.
You are free to comment on all the content that is available to you on the website. SanaCurrents will address questions as they come in. You are actually encouraged to interact with our team as it helps all of our members reap more from educational and thoughtful conversation about the investment ideas.
If warranted, SanaCurrents will provide updates to original research. We anticipate that from time to time, information will arise that is important to the central theme of the investment thesis. The biotech arena can be unpredictable, but we are on top of every one of our ideas and will make sure that we keep you informed.
We believe biotech stocks offer some of the biggest short to mid-term gains in any sector. As illustrated in our bullish case studies, it did not take very long for our bullish theses to catalyze. As a matter of fact, based on our full catalogue of research, the time to reap the rewards of favorable outcomes is on average 10 to 12 months.
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