GEO Investing

Friday after close $MUEL announced its 2023 financial results, where it reported earnings per share of $4.32 for the fourth quarter and $15.75 per share for the year.

Most importantly, the company published a separate press release that we believe is their attempt at sending a message to the market that they are not a value trap anymore.

They announced they are willing to buy $15 million worth of stock from any shareholder who may want to sell (otherwise known as a tender offer) at $80.00. This price is 15% above the current market price. Furthermore, the amount of shares that could be bought with $15 million represents about 20% of the company’s outstanding shares.

It’s been an interesting 15 years for GeoInvesting. Those who have grown with us probably know our history pretty intimately. They know that we began as a research firm offering free bullish biased research on quality microcaps and high probability turnarounds. They know that for a period of time our research included intense investigatory due diligence, rooting out fraud in the universe of China-Based companies listed on U.S. exchanges, as well as on U.S. Pump and Dump schemes.

Congrats are in order for Paul T. His microcap stock pitch he made on GeoInvestng’s Pro Portal has risen 44.32%.

On August 23, 2023 Paul made his first ever appearance on our Investor Insights Skull Session platform. Paul, a part time special situations investor/financial analyst, known as @Investmentideen on Twitter, introduced Maj to a UK based company, Kinovoa, PLC. (KINO.L)

On Tuesday, BLBD, the largest American manufacturer of school buses, reported that its fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) rose to $0.66, reversing a prior year loss, on a 17% increase in revenue. Furthermore, they demolished analyst EPS estimates of 48 cents per share, the third quarter in a row in which they beat EPS estimates by a wide margin. Despite generating over a billion dollars in revenues, the company is finding new ways to grow by making electric vehicle (EV) buses.

In 2016 we addressed the dichotomous approach to understanding the differences between generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and non-GAAP earnings. There are ways they should be scrutinized when trying to get a sense if numbers being reported by a company are a true representation of what is going on at the net income level. Non-GAAP financials are also referred to as “adjusted.”  For example, “adjusted earnings per share (EPS) or “adjusted earnings before interest taxes & depreciation & amortization (EBITDA).

Because we plan on delving into this subject in a Tweet thread that we anticipate will engage our investor network and extensions thereof, we feel it is a good idea to give another primer on the subject, especially since GeoInvesting’s Premium Subscriber base has grown substantially since 2016.

If part of your investment strategy is executing bullish or bearish short-term stock trades on earnings report news flow, it’s extremely important to understand if the GAAP and Non-GAAP earnings per share numbers being reported in a press release are “clean”.

The sales, earnings and thus share prices of cyclical stocks (cyclicals) tend to fluctuate with the overall economy and are associated with industries that are heavily affected by the economic cycle and consumer demand. (Example: stocks in the automotive, airline, hospitality, housing, building material and retail industries).

Cyclicals do well when the economy is strong and consumer demand is high, and conversely, can suffer when the economy is weak and consumer demand is low. This makes them an attractive investment class for those who are skilled at identifying economic trends or when it becomes fairly obvious that an economy is peaking or bottoming.

We believe that stock ideas coming to fruition, especially as a direct result of many of the tenets we use to evaluate the fitness of an investment, are the bright spots when the pervasion of negativity slams the market. These tenets, or as we like to call them, Tier One Microcap Criteria, are at the core of our discoveries in the microcap investment arena. Maj and our new GeoInvesting team member, Sanjay Amarnani, discussed the top 10 of these criteria in detail.