Reminder: Updated Mock U.S. portfolio holdings:

WWWW CMT VSR MERC AMOT CVU KEM USHS RES ABL PDFS TORM SMCI

Hi Paul,

It seems that you perhaps got it at a price that we thought was above our short-term expectations.  In our January 9 email we stated:

GeoBargain Consumer Portfolio Services (NASDAQ:CPSS) -  We first added CPSS to our GeoBargain list on November 12, 2012 at $3.68. We highlighted CPSS in our article “Consumer Portfolio, Our Newest GeoBargain, Shows A Clear Path On How To Profit From Sector Driven Markets”. We are considering selling our remaining shares and plan on removing CPSS from the GeoBargain list.  The stock has exceeded our price targets and is up 70% since first being coded a GeoBargain. We will continue to track the stock and reevaluate the story after the fourth quarter 2012 results are released.

We also made this public on that day here: http://geoinvesting.com/companies/cpss_consumer_portfolio/research/geobargain_notes/0043182

Although the stock continued to rise as an Ex-GeoBargain, eventually eclipsing $10.00 per share, we have not had a chance to fully evaluate the stock's current story (post 4th quarter).

While we can't give out recommendations to buy, sell or hold stocks, we can say that we may continue to monitor CPSS.

You can choose to follow our comment streams on Seeking Alpha if you would like to keep abreast of our ongoing dialogue and feedback on our articles that we publish there concurrently.

Thanks.

Z

Ex-GeoSpecial Coleman Cable (NASDAQ:CCIX) has risen sharply from the mid $9 range in January 2013 to a high of $15.40 on 3/26/2013 on the heels of strong earnings it its fiscal 2012 third and fourth quarters.  The challenge the company has faced in the past is that it offers a wide range of EPS guidance.  However, it is possible that declining copper prices may benefit the company and possibly help narrow the range of EPS guidance. Excerpt from the 10-K:

Our agreements with our suppliers generally require us to pay market price for raw materials at the time of purchase. As a result, volatility in these prices, particularly copper prices, can result in significant fluctuations in our cost of goods sold. If the cost of raw materials increase and we are unable to increase the prices of our products, or offset those cost increases with cost savings in other parts of our business, our profitability will be reduced. As a result, increases in the price of copper and other raw materials may affect our profitability if we cannot effectively pass these price increases on to our customers. In addition, we pay the freight costs on certain customer orders. In the event that freight costs increase substantially due to fuel surcharges or otherwise our profitability may decline.

Thoughts on CPSS now? I bought at 10.87.

Taylor Morrison Home Corp (NYSE:TMHC) ($24.03) is a $1 billion homebuilder that just completed its IPO.  Revenues have increased from $1.3 billion in 2011 to $1.4 billion in 2012.  Net income increased from $87 million to $104 million over the same period. Shares are selling at a trailing PE of 6.76 and an EV to sales ratio of 1.  We believe it is possible that shares could trade at an EV to sales ratio of between 2 and 3.  In its prospectus the company provided guidance that its 1st quarter revenues will increase 30%, however, it has yet to issue a press release providing this guidance.  We still need to review the company's capital structure to see if our fully diluted share count assumption is accurate.

Joe, thanks for the heads up. Reuters had the estimate of $0.32 which is the number a member of our team who issued the update referenced. I agree with your  "added statement." We were in a rush to get the email out and I did not have a chance delve deeper into release. But I did listen to the conference call which was bullish.  

• "expects Bing to significantly contribute to q2 and q3 search results"

Maj, in your e-mail note this morning, you said PERI missed analyst expectations on EPS by .02, but you might be confused. They smoked analyst expectations for the full year and Q4. Previous EPS guidance was for .90 for the year and it was .99 and for Q4, guidance called for .24 and it was .32 ... and there's a huge new catalyst as well, as the company reiterated EPS of $1.61 for the year, but this time they added this statement which tells me they're low-balling big time ....

"Our guidance takes macro changes to the search industry into account, but reflects minimal contribution from new products we expect to introduce during the first half of 2013 and does not include the incremental benefit of potential accretive acquisitions,” concluded Mr. Mandelbaum."

"

Sigmatron Intl (NASDAQ:SGMA) - We will track this stock since it participates in the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) industry and competes with similar companies we have tracked over the last few years (ie. KTCC, SMTX).  EMS stocks have delivered inconsistent financial results over the last several quarters due to trepidation by capital intensive customers that are holding back orders as they wait for a final resolution of the fiscal cliff. We certainly do not think SGMA is a slam dunk, but the recent developments make the story worth tracking. Points to consider: 1.) Increased insider buying activity. 2.) Completed an acquisition. 3.) Additional new customers.  We should point out that after 12 quarters of revenue levels ranging between $30-$39 million, revenues for the 2 most recent quarters came in at around $50 million.  We will eagerly wait for the release of the company's 3rd quarter 2013  financial results. We plan to initiate a small long shot gamble in the stock ahead of earnings.

GeoBargain Goldfield (AMEX:GV) shares active, blowing through big block on the offer.

We first added Consumer Portfolio (NASDAQ:CPSS) to our GeoBargain list on November 12, 2012 at $3.68. We highlighted CPSS in our November 12, 2012 article “Consumer Portfolio, Our Newest GeoBargain, Shows A Clear Path On How To Profit From Sector Driven Markets”. We are now removing CPSS from the GeoBargain list at $6.67.  The stock has exceeded our price targets and is up 81% since first being coded a GeoBargain. We will continue to track the stock and reevaluate the story after the fourth quarter 2012 results are released.

On December 18, 2012 we added SLTC to our 52 week high blog  @ $6.40 per share and sent our research note to members in our December 19, 2012 email. Here is our latest research article from December 24, 2012 on Selectica (NASDAQ:SLTC)

Over the past couple of months we have been perusing the software as a service (“SaaS”) space to find long and short opportunities.  During our analysis we compiled a list of companies  (EOPN, ET, ELOQ, PRO, MKTG, DWCH and Unica an Aprimo) that provide software to help companies improve various aspects of their sales process.  This task led us to Selectica (NASDAQ:SLTC). The company:

“develops innovative software that the world's most successful companies rely on to improve the effectiveness of their sales and contracting processes. Our guided selling, sales configuration, and contract lifecycle management solutions support the Global 2000 and growing mid-size firms in closing billions of dollars' worth of business each year. Our patented technology, delivered through the cloud, makes it easy for customers in industries like high-tech, telecommunications, manufacturing, healthcare, financial services, and government contracting to overcome product and channel complexity, increase deal value, and accelerate time to revenue.”

The SaaS space is especially intriguing to us since the sector has rewarded shareholders with dazzling returns with certain stocks.  One only has to reference the meteoric rise in the shares of Datawatch Corp (NASDAQ:DWCH), a SaaS company which saw its stock rise from around $5.50 in November 2011, to a high of $20.83 on 9/28/2012.

See entire report here.

We are removing Taylor Devices (NASDAQ:TAYD) from the GeoSpecial list @ $7.86 due to the first quarter 2013 backlog being down and TAYD's exposure to the fiscal cliff.

Security National Financial (NASDAQ:SNFCA) reports strong third quarter 2012 results. Reports third quarter 2012 EPS of $0.38 vs $0.08 in the prior year period.  The company filed its form 10-Q but has not issued a press release yet.  SNFCA is similar to Impac Mtg Holdings (AMEX:IMH) which saw its shares rise from $2.00 to $14.00 in just a few months time. 

Please see the GeoTeam's latest article on GeoBargain Consumer Portfolio (NASDAQ:CPSS). "Consumer Portfolio Services Shows A Clear Path On How To Profit From Sector-Driven Markets".

alpha, mucsleman,

Sold Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV) for nice profit.. Take a look at Consumer Portfolio (NASDAQ:CPSS) on pull back. I added some. Hoping it pulls back more. Starting to look at Regional Mgmt (NYSE:RM) too.

Regional Mgmt (NYSE:RM) from our IPO arbitrage screen.

This company is a diversified specialty consumer finance company providing a broad array of loan products primarily to customers with limited access to consumer credit from banks, thrifts, credit card companies and other traditional lenders. RM joins the growing list of stocks such as CPSS and other interest rate sensitive companies that are benefiting from a low interest rate environment, as well as the challenges consumers face with accessing credit. The stock went public via recent IPO in April 2012, but has not performed well. However, the stock just hit a new high and may be breaking out of a flat line chart program. The company has a GPR of 6.

Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV) and $CPSS have increased 44% and 75% respectively, since we recently alerted members of their stories and mentioned we were taking positions in their shares.  Geo is working on another pick that we feel will benefit from the low interest rate/improving housing market environment. Become a premium member to be among the first to receive our next story.

100k shares at GeoBargain Goldfield (AMEX:GV) bid of $1.85.

Kronos Worldwide (NYSE:KRO) is down 2.6% in this morning’s trading session and has fallen sharply from its recent high of $20. This morning the company filed an 8K which provides some insight into why the stock may have been weak. KRO discusses near term challenges that will negatively affect its operations and that it may need tap debt capital markets. However, once these challenges abate the company expects it’s growth to resume.

The Company’s net sales for the year ended June 30, 2012 are expected to be approximately $24 million, as compared to net sales for the year ended June 30, 2011 of approximately $46 million. The decrease in net sales was due to several factors, including increased competition in the dual-mode (3G and 4G) USB modem market, as well as competition from other similar products, which negatively affected volume and price. Sales during the year ended June 30, 2012, were also affected by delays in launching new products. During the year ended June 30, 2012 the Company was developing new products that are expected to be released during the first half of fiscal 2013.

The stock also has a attractive dividend yield which currently stands at 4.1%. Although an interview is required to determine if this dividend is secure. we are hoping the stocks continues to decline. We are not establishing a position at this time, but we will continue to track the developments  

GeoBargain Goldfield (AMEX:GV) announces $4.25 million equipment purchase order.

Watching level two action and we noticed a bid of 98400 shares at $2.09 for GeoBargain Goldfield (AMEX:GV). We will track this development to see if its an insider buying in the open market. 

Premium email sent to members:

Elxsi (PINK:ELXS) -  through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of restaurants in New England. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 10 restaurants. The company also engages in manufacturing and servicing video inspection and repair equipment for wastewater and drainage systems in the United States and internationally. 

Please recall that ELXS first entered our Tier 1Pink Sheets screen on 1/14/2012 at $3.25 and was mentioned in an email to members on April 2, 2012.

Through emails to our members, we have mentioned the positive operational gains that ELXS has made over the last several quarters. The company’s 2012 2^nd quarter continued this trend.

• Revenues increased 19% to $18.9 million; this revenue performance appears to be a record for the company.
• EPS increased 25% to $0.35

ELXS has now logged above average EPS growth for 9 quarters and believes the positive operational trend should continue. "Management expects the positive trend experienced over the last few quarters to continue as the restaurant segment exposure has been significantly diminished and the current outlook for pipe line infrastructure spending appears stable.  For more color on ELXS’s growth drivers please see it August 14^th quarterly report and our May 22^nd 2012 research notes.

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I've spoken at length with both Co CEO's here and I can almost gurantee that SMTX will be sold at much higehr prices. Don't kid yourself, SMTX is for sale IMO. I just think folks are impatient here after a good earnings report.

Joe, Alpha, muscleman.

Took a preliminary position in Wsi Industries (NASDAQ:WSCI).

We added WSCI to the GeoBargain on the radar list on August 6, 2012.

Blog Notes: http://blog.geoinvesting.com/?page_id=2770
 

• Company just reported 2012 3rd quarter results.
   
• The results exceeded any quarter in the last 10 years by over $2 million.
   
• Bottom line profit results also improved with the fiscal 2012 third quarter at $0.21 per diluted share equating to a 51% increase over the prior year quarter, which is also at the highest level in the last 10 years.
   
• The company is benefiting from penetration into markets that are experiencing favorable growth trends such as the recreational vehicle and energy industry.
   
• Company commentary was upbeat heading into 2013. Furthermore, the company just announced it will be embarking on a plant expansion to gear up for future growth. The planned expansion will double current capacity.
   
• Placing on the GeoBargain on the radar list.
   
• Will attempt to interview the company to determine if the 3rd quarter was a breakout quarter. Keep in mind that the company has had erratic quarterly EPS history.
• Company guidance implies that the company’s 2012 fourth quarter ending in August will match 2012 third quarter results.

We have gone long WSCI, pre interview.