'CBPO' topics and messages from GeoInvesting

Special Note

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

China Bio Product Inc. has released it's September 2009 Investor Presentation

Comments & Business Outlook

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Guidance Update:

�

Revenues: $48 million to $50 million
Net income: $9 million to $10 million

�

Revenues: $90 million to $100 million
Net income: $18 million to $22 million

Source: PR Newswire (November 12, 2008)

However, per the third quarter 10Q report page 34, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"Overall, we believe that cash flow from our operating activities and the existing credit facilities available to us should be adequate to sustain our operations at current levels through the next twelve months."

A clarification of this situation is needed. The GeoTeam^® would urge the company to issue EPS guidance if shares outstanding will remain stable in 2009. If shares do remain stable 2009 tax adjusted net income guidance would be around $17 million (EPS $.77), implying ‌a forward P/E of only 2.6.

Research

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

GeoNuggets - Quick Check List Highlighting Undiscovered Opportunities

China Bio Products Inc. (OTC.BB:CBPO)

Company Description: China Bio Products is principally engaged in the research, development, production and manufacturing and sale of plasma-based biopharmaceutical products to hospitals and other health care facilities in China. The Company's human albumin products are mainly used to increase blood volume and its immunoglobulin products are used for the treatment and prevention of diseases.

Price (5/01/09): $3.45
Trailing P/E: 6.39*

Fiscal Year Ends In December

12 Months trailing Non-GAAP EPS (tax adjusted ): $0.54*
**Average Company Non-GAAP EPS Guidance for 2009 (tax adjusted): $0.81**

* All EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam to reflect a United States standard tax rate.

** The GeoTeam used the of March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure. However, The company did not issue EPS guidance. Thus, investors may infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future. However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"With the bank credit facilities that are available to us and other financing activities, we expect that cash on hand, funds generated from our operations and funds generated from companies that we may acquire in the future will be sufficient to satisfy our current and future commitments for at least the next twelve months."

Reasons for optimism

1. The company meets nine out of ten GeoBargain categories.

	Recent 52-week high The stock has recently attained a new 52-week high.
	30% EPS growth rate Earnings per share (EPS) grew 62.6% in 2008.
	10% revenue growth 2008 Revenues grew 44%.
	Strong balance sheet The company meets two of three requirements. Debt to Equity Ratio is 16% (The GeoTeam minimum preference is under 20%). The company is Cash Flow Positive. Current Assets to Current Liabilities is a little light at 1.3 to 1 ( The GeoTeam minimum preference is at least 2 to 1)
	15% ROE Tax adjusted 2008 Return on Equity (ROE) was at 30%.
	The company is seeking to ultimately achieve minimum pre-tax operating margins of 8%. 2008 adjusted (Non-GAAP) pre-tax margins were 45%.
	Under 50 million shares The company currently has 21,434,942 shares outstanding.
	High insider ownership All officers and directors as a group own 63.7% of company stock.
	Limited institutional ownership
	Peg Ratio (P/E / EPS Growth Rate) is less than 1 PEG Ratio based on 2008 tax adjusted EPS growth rate is .08.

2. The recent Acquisition of a 90% Controlling Interest in Chongqing Dalin Biologic Technologies Co., Ltd. makes China Biologic the largest non-state-owned producer of plasma- based biopharmaceutical products in China. This development strengthens their already solid competitive advantage, especially in light of the limited supply of plasma sources in China.

3. "The plasma-based industry has been immune from the impact of the ongoing global financial crisis as the demand for the products has out-paced supply."

4. The current regulatory requirements to participate in the China biopharmaceutical industry poses a barrier to entry, limiting the competitive landscape.

5. The company is forecasting revenue to increase between 93% and 114% ($90 million to $100 million), while adjusted net income is forecasted to rise between 35% and 65% ($18 million to $22 million). This guidance assumes the successful integration of the Chongqing Dalin Biologic Technologies transaction as well as the completion of one more pending acquisition.

Potential valuation scenarios if the company can achieve its EPS growth goals.

Potential value based on fully taxed adjusted trailing EPS

o P/E 15* $0.54= $8.10

o P/E 20* $0.54= $10.80

o P/E 25* $0.54= $13.5

Potential value based on fully taxed adjusted� EPS published analyst estimates

o P/E 10* $0.8 = $8.00

o P/E 15* $0.81= $12.15

These scenarios are not intended to be investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines. They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.

Research

Mon, 04 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

GeoNuggets - Quick Check List Highlighting Undiscovered Opportunities

China Bio Products Inc. (OTC.BB:CBPO)

Price (5/01/09): $3.45
Trailing P/E: 6.39*

Fiscal Year Ends In December

12 Months trailing Non-GAAP EPS (tax adjusted ): $0.54*
**Average Company Non-GAAP EPS Guidance for 2009 (tax adjusted): $0.81**

* All EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam to reflect a United States standard tax rate.

Reasons for optimism

1. The company meets nine out of ten GeoBargain categories.

	Recent 52-week high The stock has recently attained a new 52-week high.
	30% EPS growth rate Earnings per share (EPS) grew 62.6% in 2008.
	10% revenue growth 2008 Revenues grew 44%.
	Strong balance sheet The company meets two of three requirements. Debt to Equity Ratio is 16% (The GeoTeam minimum preference is under 20%). The company is Cash Flow Positive. Current Assets to Current Liabilities is a little light at 1.3 to 1 ( The GeoTeam minimum preference is at least 2 to 1)
	15% ROE Tax adjusted 2008 Return on Equity (ROE) was at 30%.
	The company is seeking to ultimately achieve minimum pre-tax operating margins of 8%. 2008 adjusted (Non-GAAP) pre-tax margins were 45%.
	Under 50 million shares The company currently has 21,434,942 shares outstanding.
	High insider ownership All officers and directors as a group own 63.7% of company stock.
	Limited institutional ownership
	Peg Ratio (P/E / EPS Growth Rate) is less than 1 PEG Ratio based on 2008 tax adjusted EPS growth rate is .08.

3. "The plasma-based industry has been immune from the impact of the ongoing global financial crisis as the demand for the products has out-paced supply."

4. The current regulatory requirements to participate in the China biopharmaceutical industry poses a barrier to entry, limiting the competitive landscape.

Potential valuation scenarios if the company can achieve its EPS growth goals.

Potential value based on fully taxed adjusted trailing EPS

o  P/E 15* $0.54= $8.10
o  P/E 20* $0.54= $10.80
o  P/E 25* $0.54= $13.5

Potential value based on fully taxed adjusted� EPS published analyst estimates

o P/E 10* $0.8 = $8.00
o P/E 15* $0.81= $12.15

Research

Mon, 04 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Hi,

Company looks inexpensive but I have at least two concerns.

1. There is an entry in the 10-K under legal proceeedings and elsewhere describing an issue with Mr. Zu Ying Du.

"Mr. Du and Missile Engineering have filed actions in the Intermediate Court of Wuhan City, Hubei province, against the following defendants, Du Hai Shan the brother of Mr. Du, Beijing Chen Da and Logic Express. Mr. Du and Missile Engineering have requested that the Wuhan Intermediate Court to restore the equity interests originally held by the plaintiffs, 25% equity interest by Mr. Du and 41% equity interest by Missile Engineering."

Part of the text suggests that he has had a court ruling in his favour, although the judgement was since suspended on the grounds that the ruling court lacked jurisdiction.

ق. There is an entry under risks to the business.

"We rely on a Secondment Agreement with the Shandong Institute, which is expected to terminate before the end of 2008 upon the privatization of the Shandong Institute, for over 39% of our Shandong Taibang employees. If the Secondment Agreement is breached or terminated, it could have an adverse effect on our operations and on our financial results."

Any thoughts on these issues?

Regards,

Geoff

Financials

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Full Year 2008 Financial Table Ended December

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	$0.37	67.6%
Tax Rate	23%	17%	35.3%
Fully Tax Adjusted EPS^b	$0.49	$0.30	63.3%
Fully Tax Adjusted non-GAAP EPS	$0.55	$0.30	83.3%
Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

^bFor valuation purposes the GeoTeam® prefers to adjust EPS to reflect a standard United States rate.

Potential Valuation Scenarios

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Valuation Scenarios:

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year End in December

Date	م/15/09
Current Price	$3.90
12 Months trailing EPS (tax adjusted )	$0.54^a
Company Guidance for� (tax adjusted)	$0.81
Future EPS growth based on Company Guidance for�	50%
Trailing P/E Ratio (tax adjusted )	7.22
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)	0.14

^aAll EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam to reflect a United States tax rate.

Short Term Scenarios

Price based on P/E of 25 on four quarters trailing EPS	$13.50
Price base on P/E of㺔 on four quarters trailing EPS	$10.80
Price based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Company Guidance	$12.15

Long Term (12 Months Forward) Scenarios

Price based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Company Guidance	$20.25
Price based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Company Guidance	$16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis: Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.

PEG Ratio less than 1?

Yes

Potential Valuation Scenarios

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Valuation Scenarios

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year Ends in December

Date	5/15/09
Price	$3.90
12 Months Trailing EPS ^a	$0.54
Published 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates	$0.81
Future EPS Growth Rate Based on Estimates	50%
Trailing P/E Ratio	7.22
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)	0.14

^a All EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect an average marginal tax rate of 36%.

Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

Date	5/15/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS	$13.50
Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS	$10.80
Price Based on P/E of㺏 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates	$12.15

Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

Date	5/15/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates	$20.25
Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates	$16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

PEG Ratio Less than 1?

YES

These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines. They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.

Financials

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

FULL YEAR 2008 vs. 2007 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED DECEMBER

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	$0.37	67.6%
Tax Rate	23%	17%	35.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted EPS^b	$0.48	$0.30	63.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS	$0.54	$0.30	83.3%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

^a EPS Figures exclude non-operating gains and losses. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for reported, or GAAP information.For a more complete explanation of the company's definition of non-GAAP please refer to their fourth quarter financial press release.

^b For valuation purposes, The GeoTeam® prefers to adjust EPS to reflect a standard United States tax rate of 36%

Source: See Release

Financials

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

FULL YEAR 2008 vs. 2007 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED DECEMBER

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	$0.37	67.6%
Tax Rate	23%	17%	35.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted EPS^b	$0.48	$0.30	63.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.54	$0.30	83.3%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

Financials

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

FULL YEAR 2008 vs. 2007 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED DECEMBER

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	$0.37	67.6%
Tax Rate	23%	17%	35.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted EPS^b	$0.48	$0.30	63.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.54	$0.30	83.3%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

Financials

Thu, 14 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

FULL YEAR 2008 vs. 2007 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED DECEMBER

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	$0.37	67.6%
Tax Rate	23%	17%	35.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted EPS^b	$0.48	$0.30	63.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.54	$0.30	83.3%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

Comments & Business Outlook

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Full Year 2009 Guidance

	Full Year 2009 Guidance	Full Year 2008	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$90 to $100 million	$47 million	91.5 to 113%
Non-GAAP Net Income	$18 to $22 million	$13 million	38.5% to 69.2%
Non-GAAP EPS ^a	$.93	$.67	38.8%
Fully Diluted Shares ^a	21,434,942	21,861,014	-1.9%

Source: See Release

^a The company issued net income guidance of $90 million to $100 million, but did not provide EPS guidance. The GeoTeam® used the March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure. The lack of EPS guidance may cause some investors to infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future. However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

Financials

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

FIRST QUARTER� vs. FIRST QUARTER� FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED MARCH

	First Quarter 2009	First Quarter 2008	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$21.1 million	$32.4 million	169.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.20	$0.10	100.0%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.20	$0.10	100.0%
Tax Rate	21.86%	20.49%	6.7%
Fully Tax-Adjusted EPS^b	$0.17	$0.08	100.1%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.17	$0.08	100.1%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,434,942	21,946,168	-2.3%

Source: See Release

FULL YEAR 2008 vs. 2007 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED DECEMBER

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	$0.37	67.6%
Tax Rate	23%	17%	35.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted EPS^b	$0.48	$0.30	63.3%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.54	$0.30	83.3%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

Potential Valuation Scenarios

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Valuation Scenarios

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year Ends in December

Date	5/15/09	5/19/09
Price	$3.90	$4.12
12 Months Trailing EPS ^a	$0.54	$.64
2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$0.81	$0.81
2009 Implied EPS Growth Rate Based Average Company Guidance ^a,b	50%	50%
Trailing P/E Ratio ^a	7.22	6.44
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)	0.14	.13

^b. The company issued net income guidance of $90 million to $100 million, but did not provide EPS guidance. The GeoTeam® used the March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure. The lack of EPS guidance may cause some investors to infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future. However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"With the bank credit facilities that are available to us and other financing activities, we expect that cash on hand, funds generated from our operations and funds generated from companies that we may acquire in the future will be sufficient to satisfy our current and future commitments for at least the next twelve months."

Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

Date	5/15/09	5/19/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS	$13.50	$16.00
Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS	$10.80	$12.80
Price Based on P/E of㺏 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$12.15	$12.15

Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

Date	5/15/09	5/19/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$20.25	$20.25
Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$16.20	$16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

PEG Ratio Less than 1?

YES

These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines. They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.

Comments & Business Outlook

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

About $9.6 million additional capital was raised in early June 2009 by way of convertible notes due in 2011, with warrants attached. Good terms for CBPO; apparently knowledgeable investors in health care issues who took the PP.

Provided the notes and warrants shall be converted in full into shares of CBPO, the fully diluted share count will then be 25,017,745.

In this case, the company will also have raised $15.3 million in working capital.

I am hoping for per share earnings for the out years (GAAP, fully taxed) like these:

2010 eps on present s/o: $1.04 (no conversion or warrant exercise yet)

2011 eps on present s/o: $1.40

2011 eps on fully diluted shares: $1.20 post conversion & warrants exercise.

Comments & Business Outlook

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Thanks for the good information. What tax-rate did you apply in your estimate? I would like to re-post your comments as a GeoMember Research note. I may have to rework my implied EPS number based on new share information.

Maj, Geoteam

Comments & Business Outlook

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

In your 7 Jan 2009 Comments and Business Outlook you had mentioned tax adjusted income of $.77/share for 2009. I had assumed that a 36% US tax had been implied in this figure and that was my starting point for full year 2009. For 2010 and again 2011 I went with heroic growth in eps of 35% per year and thus came to my forward eps hopes. So you may want to check if your fully taxed GAAP eps estimate for 2009 is still 77 cents. And you will need to apply the growth rate for eps which you consider sufficiently realistic. My 35% may well be on the high side - thus hoped for eps. - - - - - - - Looking a little closer, the company guides for net income of $18 - 22 million for 2009. With 21.435 million s/o this would mean eps of 84 - 102 cents. The question is, did the company already deduct a certain percentage in taxes to arrive at their net income? As I think some tax is already implied in those figures, the adjustment for full US tax rates of 36% would only have to allow for the difference.

Financials

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 04:00:00 GMT

SECOND QUARTER� vs. � FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED JUNE

	Second Quarter 2009	Second Quarter 2008	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$33.2 million	$18.6 million	178.2%
GAAP EPS	$0.32	$0.09	255.6%
Company Supplied Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.38	$0.15	151.5%
Tax Rate	20.9%	43.2%	-51.6%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.26	$0.15	73.3%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,434,942	21,946,168	-2.3%

Source: See Release, August 17, 2009

FIRST QUARTER� vs.� FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED MARCH

	First Quarter 2009	First Quarter 2008	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$21.1 million	$32.4 million	169.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.20	$0.10	100.0%
Geo Supplied Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.22	$0.10	120.0%
Tax Rate	21.9%	20.5%	6.7%
*Fully Tax-Adjusted* Geo Supplied *Non-GAAP EPS*^b	$0.15	$0.08	87.5%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,434,942	21,946,168	-2.3%

Source: See Release

FULL YEAR 2008 vs. 2007 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT ENDED DECEMBER

	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$46.8 million	$32.4 million	44.4%
GAAP EPS	$0.56	$0.37	46.5%
Company Supplied Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.62	n/a	n/a
Geo Supplied Non-GAAP EPS^a	$0.65	$0.39	66.7%
Tax Rate	23.1%	16.6%	39.2%
Fully Tax-Adjusted Geo Supplied Non-GAAP EPS^b	$0.50	$0.28	78.6%
Fully Diluted Shares	21,556,342	21,861,014	-1.4%

Potential Valuation Scenarios

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Valuation Scenarios

Added to Geo Bargain list on April 27, 2009. ($4.15).

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year Ends in December
2008 Tax-Adjusted non-GAAP EPS: $0.50 (previous calculation was $0.54)

Date	5/15/09	5/19/09	8/17/09
Price	$3.90	$4.12	$4.35
12 Months Trailing EPS ^a	$0.54	$0.64	$0.68
2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$0.81	$0.81	$0.81
2009 Implied EPS Growth Rate Based Average Company Guidance ^a,b	50%	50%	50%
Trailing P/E Ratio ^a	7.22	6.44	6.40
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)	0.14	0.13	0.13

^a CBPO does not pay a full U.S. tax rate. Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect an average marginal tax rate of 36%. EPS are Non-GAAP figures and excludes non-cash compensation expense. EPS number are non-GAAP. Non-GAAP EPS Figures exclude certain non-operating gains and losses as well as certain non-cash items. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for reported, or GAAP information . For a more complete explanation of the company's definition of non-GAAP please refer to its financial press releases. The GeoTeam® non-GAAP figures may, from time to time, differ from company supplied figures.

^b. The company issued net income guidance of $18 million to $22 million, but did not provide EPS guidance. The GeoTeam® used the March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure. The lack of EPS guidance may cause some investors to infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future. However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"With the bank credit facilities that are available to us and other financing activities, we expect that cash on hand, funds generated from our operations and funds generated from companies that we may acquire in the future will be sufficient to satisfy our current and future commitments for at least the next twelve months."

Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

Date	5/15/09	5/19/09	8/17/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS	$13.50	$16.00	$17.00
Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS	$10.80	$12.80	$13.60
Price Based on P/E of㺏 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$12.15	$12.15	$12.15

Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

Date	5/15/09	5/19/09	8/17/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$20.25	$20.25	$20.25
Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance ^a,b	$16.20	$16.20	$16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

PEG Ratio Less than 1?

YES

These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines. They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.

Comments & Business Outlook

Wed, 20 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

hello,

What a nice quarter by CBPO. Too bad its on the BB or it may be rocking. Regarding the CBPO tax situation. i assumed the company's guidance assumed a tax rate of around 20%. I then took that into account in my tax adjusted eps figure.

GeoBargain Notes

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 04:00:00 GMT

China Bio Products reported 2009 second quarter financial results well above the GeoTeam's internal expectations.

Revenues increased 178.2% year-over-year to a record $33.2 million
Non-GAAP EPS increased 151.5% to $0.38 per diluted share.
Non-GAAP EPS increased 90% from the 2009 first quarter.

The GeoTeam® participated on China Bio Products 2009 second quarter conference call. Overall the call was bullish. CBPO showed impressive internal growth even if the contribution from a recent acquisition are omitted. On the call the company maintained guidance.

See Updated Financial Tables
See Updated Valuation Scenarios

Comments & Business Outlook

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Third quarter discussion per SEC 10Q filing

The continuing price increase of our products since 2008 was primarily attributable to the government’s stringent control on the quality standard of the plasma-based production industry, which resulted in a shortage in the supply of finished products. We were able to adjust our production plan to take advantage of the limited market supply of plasma resources to realize higher profit margins. In addition, there is a shortage in the market supply for human albumin products which has increased the value of our products in the market place. The plasma-based industry has been immune from the impact of the on-going global financial crisis as the demand for our products has out-paced supply. As a result, our selling price, cost of revenue and operating expenses during the third quarter of 2009 were not impacted by the global financial turmoil. With the acquisition of Dalin, and its operating subsidiary Qianfeng, we are better situated to serve our existing and new customers with expanded production capacity and market coverage. Our management expects that our revenue growth will remain strong for the remainder of 2009.

GeoBargain Notes

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

China Bio Products reported third quarter results.

Qtr. Ended March	3rd Quarter 2009	3rd Quarter 2008	Period Change
GAAP Revenue	$26.9 million	$13.8 million	94.9%
GAAP EPS	-$0.29	$0.21	n/a
Company Supplied Non-GAAP EPS	$0.33	$0.21	36.4%
Fully Diluted Shares	21.6 million	21.5 million	0.0%

Source: PR Newswire (November 16, 2009)

Investors may not initially view this quarter enthusiastically as GAAP EPS appear weak. But after adding back one time charges to net income CBPO reported a much more favorable non-GAAP EPS comparison, which is what we will choose to focus on.
^a Non-GAAP EPS Figures exclude certain non-operating gains and losses as well as certain non-cash items contained in the company's filings. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for reported, or GAAP information . The GeoTeam® non-GAAP figures may, from time to time, differ from company supplied figures.

GeoBargain Notes

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Recall that CBPO was added to Geo Bargain list on April 27, 2009. ($4.15).

Earlier today we removed CBPO from the GeoBargain list possibly due to a opinionated blog insinuating that members of the management team have been involved in fraudulent activities. The author of the blog is short the stock, so it’s clearly a biased opinion.

The allegations are not new, but the stock reacted as if they were. Funny that there were no pot shots at the financials. We still like the company and will keep the stock on the GeoBargain on the Radar List until we receive clarification on this matter. Until the resolution, investing in CBPO is not worth the risk as we have plenty of non controversial stocks to choose from, especially during this market pull back.

Comments & Business Outlook

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 04:00:00 GMT

China Biologic expects 2010 revenue to be in the range of $142 million to $149 million vs $119 million in 2009. This guidance assumes only organic growthand does not include and excludes acquisitions or approval for the construction of new plasma collection stations. The guidance does not assume any material price or volume increases during 2010.

The Company expects 2010 non-GAAP^a net income to be in the range of $34 million to $36 million vs. $31.3 million in 2009.

As a matter of policy, the Company does not intend to update this guidance during the year.

Source: PR Newswire (March 23, 2010)

Comments & Business Outlook

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 04:00:00 GMT

Second Quarter 2010 Highlights

Revenues increased 23.3% year-over-year to $40.9 million.
Gross profit rose 32.6% year-over-year to $31.8 million, representing a gross margin of 77.9%, as compared to 72.4% a year ago.
Operating income grew 37.7% to $22.8 million.
GAAP net income attributable to controlling interest was $12.9 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, including a $2.3 million non-cash gain from change in the fair value of derivative liabilities.
Excluding the non-cash gain, interest on convertible notes and non-cash employee compensation, non-GAAP adjusted net income was $10.9 million or $0.41 per diluted share, a 31.2% increase from $8.3 million or $0.38 per diluted share a year ago

"Our second quarter results were very strong, with 23.3% growth in revenues and 31.2% growth in adjusted net income, primarily driven by robust demand and a favorable pricing environment for our plasma-based products," said Mr. Chao Ming Zhao, Chief Executive Officer of China Biologic. "We are moving forward with establishing our two new plasma collection stations in Yishui and Ninyang counties in Shandong Province, and expect to begin trial collections at the new locations by the end of the year. We also increased our focus on marketing and educational medical conferences in the second quarter, as part of our strategy to strengthen our ties with hospitals and clinics, since we believe that direct sales to these customers can secure our market share and support our long-term growth."

2010 Guidance and Business Outlook

China Biologic maintained its guidance for 2010:

Revenues in the range of $142 million and $149 million.
2010 adjusted net income in the range of $34 million and $36 million.

As part of its scheduled annual maintenance and inspection process, the Company shut down its facility in Qianfeng for approximately 45 days in June and July and its Taibang facility for 30 days beginning in late July. Due to careful planning of production and inventories, this is expected to have minimal impact to the company's revenue generation.

Guidance for 2010 adjusted net income excludes any non-cash gain or loss related to change in the fair value of derivative liabilities, stock-based compensation expense and any adjustments in the U.S. federal income tax provision in 2010 related to the expiration of the look-through exception for Subpart F income on December 31, 2009, and excludes any acquisitions, new product approvals or operational impact from new plasma stations. The guidance also does not assume any material price or volume increases during the year.

Comments & Business Outlook

Tue, 16 Nov 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Third Quarter 2010 Highlights

Revenues increased 33.2% period-over-period to $36.0 million.

Gross profit rose 36.1% period-over-period to $27.3 million, representing a gross margin of 75.9%, as compared to 74.3% a year ago.

Income from operations grew 34.2% to $18.8 million.

GAAP net income attributable to controlling interest was $13.7 million, or $0. 53 per diluted share, including a $3.8 millionnon-cash gain from change in the fair value of derivative liabilities.

Excluding the non-cash gain from change in fair value of derivative liabilities, interest on convertible notes and non-cash employee compensation, non-GAAP adjusted net income was $10.5 million or $0.39 per diluted share, a 48.7% increase from $7.1 million, or $0.33 per diluted share a year ago.

The Company established Ning Yang Taibang Plasma Company and Yi Shui Taibang Plasma Company in July 2010 for the purpose of operating two new plasma stations in Shandong Province, PRC.

"Our 2010 third quarter results were very strong, with 33.2% growth in revenues and 48.7% growth in adjusted net income, driven by robust demand and an overall favorable pricing environment for our plasma-based products," said Mr. Chao Ming Zhao, Chief Executive Officer of China Biologic. "During the quarter, we established two new plasma collection stations in Yishui and Ninyang counties in Shandong Province, and we expect to begin trial collections at the Yishui station by the end of the year and at the Ninyang station by early 2011. We expect that when these sites are at their full capacity, we will realize up to 80 metric tons of incremental plasma collection capacity."

2010 Guidance and Business Outlook

China Biologic reaffirms its guidance for 2010 of

revenues in the range of $142 million to $149 million.
adjusted net income between $34 million and $36 million.

Mr. Zhao added, "We believe that the results for the first nine months of 2010 reinforce the merits of China Biologic's strategy to acquire or build new locations, scale up our existing plasma infrastructure, and advance exciting products through our pipeline. From investing in strategic marketing to drive collection center donor volumes, to developing closer relationships with hospitals and inoculation centers, we intend to maximize the utilization of our growing plasma network. We expect that our strong balance sheet and solid operating cash flow will provide us with the resources to take advantage of opportunities created by rising consumer demand and tight supply conditions based on strict government regulation. On the research and development front, we continue to expect our applications for production of Human Prothrombin Complex Conentrate and Human Coagulation Factor VIII to be approved by the SFDA in early 2011. Heading into next year, we intend to leverage our expertise in the field to capitalize further on China's under-pentrated plasma market and build value for our shareholders."

Liquidity Requirements

Tue, 16 Nov 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Management believes that the Company has sufficient cash on hand and continuing positive cash inflow, from the sale of its plasma-based products in the PRC market. Our management expects continued growth in revenues throughout the term of the convertible notes, largely due to the ongoing limited supply of plasma-based products in the PRC market in connection with the introduction of more stringent health and safety measures which we already meet. In light of the foregoing, we believe that we will have the financial ability to fulfill our payment obligations under the convertible notes when they come due.

Analyst Reports

Thu, 18 Nov 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Rodman & Renshaw on CBPO

Key Points:

China Biologic Products reported $36MM in revenues and $13.7 MM net income to controlling interest for 3Q10, or $0.53 per diluted share. Top line revenues are slightly higher than our estimate of $34MM, and the bottom line beats our adjusted estimate of $0.41 per diluted share.
Management reiterated guidance of $142MM - $149MM in revenue (19 - 25% organic growth) and adjusted net income of $34MM - $36MM for 2010.
Future growth potential could be driven by new product launches (2011), as well as expansion of plasma collection.
The company ended 3Q10 with a cash position of $64.6MM, an increase of $8MM from 2Q10.
We maintain our growth assumptions but increase 2010 revenues to $147MM from $145MM and EPS to $1.76 from $1.51, to reflect strong results in 3Q10.
We reiterate our Market Outperform rating with a $17 target price.

Strong Quarter, Scheduled Annual Maintenance Has Minimum Impact

During 3Q10, China Biologic Products suspended manufacturing as scheduled for approximate 45 days and 30 days, respectively, at two major operating facilities. This scheduled annual maintenance and inspection process, due to management’s careful planning – had a minimum impact on the company’s revenues. In 3Q10, the company experienced organic revenue growth of 33% year over year. Gross margins remained above 76%, although slightly lower than 78% in 2Q10. GAAP net income benefited from a $3.8MM non-cash gain related to the change of fair value of derivative liabilities. We continue to expect non-cash charges/gains to be incurred until these securities are converted into common stock.

Pricing Power Continues but Facing Future Pressure

Strong revenue in 3Q10 was due to price and volume increases. Sales of IVIG accounted for 36% of total revenue in 3Q10, which was partly attributable to a 27% price increase YoY. Hep B continues to enjoy 56% price increase in 3Q10 after experienced a 434% price increase in 2Q10. However, the company’s major product albumin (49% of total revenue) experienced 4.3% price decrease due to competition from imported albumin. Although sales volume increased, albumin revenue was flat in 3Q10. Human IgG also experienced 12% decrease in price. In our opinion, pricing power continues to contribute to growth in the near term. However, long term growth is driven by expanding plasma supply and introduction of new plasma products into Chinese market. We project annual sales of $147MM in 2010 and $254MM in 2013.

Reimbursement Awaits Government Decision

Over 85% of company’s sales are expected to be covered by National Insurance Catalog in China as Class B drugs. Unlike Class A drugs, which are reimbursed 100%, Class B drugs reimbursement policies are determined by each province. To date, the regional governments have not provided guidance on reimburse rate of each drug.

Allegation Investigation Under Process

China Biologic Products appointed the Special Committee of independent directors to investigate allegation against Mr. Lam, the CEO of the operating subsidiary Shandong Taibang. Special committee has not disclosed investigation process since its commencement in March 2010.

Maintaining Our Market Outperform Rating and $17 Target Price

We increased our revenue projection to $147MM in 2010 and $46MM in net income to the controlling interest ($36MM after adjusted for non-cash change in fair value of derivative liabilities) for 2010. We maintain our Market Outperform rating and a 12 – month target price of $17 / share. The price target is derived from an NPV analysis with a 15% annual discount rate and a 5% terminal value growth rate.

Notice Regarding Privacy and Confidentiality:

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. While it is based on information generally available to the public from sources we believe to be reliable, no representation is made that the subject information is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee nor does it necessarily serve as an indicator of future results. Price and availability are subject to change without notice. Additional information is available upon request.

Since Rodman & Renshaw, LLC is not a tax advisor, transactions requiring tax consideration should be reviewed carefully with your tax advisor. Similarly, Rodman & Renshaw, LLC is not a law firm and provides no legal opinions or legal advice.

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC may make a market in the securities being discussed.

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC and/or its officers or employees may have positions in any of the securities of this (these) issuer(s).

Member FINRA.
Member SIPC.

Investor Alert

Sun, 05 Dec 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Findings of the Special Committee

As previously reported, on January 27, 2010, in response to allegations appearing on certain financial websites of fraud and criminal activity of certain principals and affiliates of the Company and the legitimacy of the Company’s ownership of its Chinese operating subsidiary, Shandong Taibang Biological Products Co. Ltd. (“Shandong Taibang”), the Company established a special independent committee comprised of the Company's independent directors, Mr. Sean Shao and Dr. Tong Jun Lin (who were later joined by new director Dr. Xiangmin Cui) (the "Special Committee"), to investigate the allegations with the assistance of a reputable international firm, and report its findings to the board of directors as soon as practicable. On March 1, 2010, the Special Committee retained O'Melveny & Myers LLP, an international law firm, to advise the Special Committee and to assist in the investigation of the allegations. On November 26, 2010, the Special Committee reported to the Company’s board of directors concerning the investigation. In submitting its report, the Special Committee reported that the investigation had been constrained by substantial limitations on access to relevant official records from Chinese military and governmental authorities and the availability of other relevant information in China. Subject to these limitations, below is a summary of key findings of the Special Committee:

Allegations Regarding Seed Money – With respect to the allegations that Mr. Xiaowei Zhang, the former manager of Minfa Securities Company (“Minfa”) who is currently imprisoned in China for financial crimes including embezzlement of capital from Minfa, embezzled funds to provide the original seed capital for Taibang’s predecessor, Shandong Missile Biologic Products Co Ltd. (“Missile”), in 2002, the Special Committee could find no evidence that embezzled funds provided the seed capital for Missile. While the Special Committee found that Beijing Chen Da Technology Investment Co Ltd. (“Chen Da”), an entity owned and controlled by Minfa and a founding shareholder of Missile, had borrowed RMB 39.2 million from Minfa in connection with the establishment of Missile, from which Chen Da used RMB 19.2 million to acquire a 24% interest in Missile and loaned RMB 20 million to Dr. Zuying Du for him to acquire a 25% interest in Missile, none of the several Chinese judicial, law enforcement, and administrative authorities who examined the loan from Minfa to Chen Da during the subsequent criminal case against Xiaowei Zhang treated the loan as funds embezzled from Minfa.

Allegations Regarding Control of Company – With respect to allegations that Mr. Xiaowei Zhang continues to exercise control over the Company and/or Shandong Taibang, the Special Committee found that, while Feiguang Zhang, the brother-in-law of Xiaowei Zhang, is currently a deputy general manager of Shandong Taibang, and Lei Zhang, the nephew of Xiaowei Zhang, currently serves on the board of directors of Shandong Taibang, it could find no evidence that any of the current shareholders, inside directors, or officers of the Company currently act at the direction of, or for the benefit of, Xiaowei Zhang.

Allegations Regarding Du Claims – With respect to allegations that Mr. Zuying Du may bring actions challenging the validity of the Company’s ownership interest in Shandong Taibang in the future, the Special Committee reported that relevant available information obtained during its investigation, including certain records of past judicial and administrative proceedings and the personal accounts of certain relevant witnesses, tends to support the Company’s historical position in related litigation, as disclosed under the “Legal Proceedings” heading in applicable SEC filings, that Mr. Du’s claims against the Company lack merit underChinese law. The Special Committee further reported that, as of the date of its report, no administrative or judicial authority has issued any final, binding measure or order determining that the transfer of Mr. Du’s ownership interest to Chen Da was invalid under Chinese law.

Allegations Regarding Identity of Tung Lam – With respect to the allegation that Mr. Tung Lam, the Chief Executive Officer of one of the Company's primary operating subsidiaries, Shandong Taibang, and spouse of Mrs. Siu Ling Chan, the Company's board chair, was previously known as Mr. Lin Ziping and was imprisoned for smuggling in China, the Special Committee found evidence supporting Mr. Lam's denial of the allegation, as well as conflicting evidence with respect to this claim. As a result, the Special Committee concluded that it could neither confirm nor exclude the allegation.

Allegations Regarding Ze Qin Lin – With respect to the allegations that Mr. Ze Qin Lin, the husband of current CBPO director Ms. Lin Ling Li, is a former associate of Mr. Tung Lam and was imprisoned in China in connection with the same smuggling activities, the Special Committee found support for the allegation that Mr. Ze Qin Lin was sentenced to imprisonment in China in connection with smuggling offenses of Fuzhou Bonded Zone Western Industrial, Ltd.

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