Providing investors with the
tools to make informed decisions.
Providing investors with the
tools to make informed decisions.
 Tracking 1260 U.S. listed China Stocks and Counting...
 Tracking 3141 U.S. Stocks and Counting...

 China Biologic Pr (NASDAQ:CBPO)

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Valuation Scenarios

Added to Geo Bargain list on April 27, 2009. ($4.15). 

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year Ends in December
2008 Tax-Adjusted non-GAAP EPS: $0.50 (previous calculation was $0.54)

Date 5/15/09 5/19/09 8/17/09
Price $3.90 $4.12 $4.35
12 Months Trailing EPS a $0.54 $0.64 $0.68
2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $0.81 $0.81 $0.81
2009 Implied EPS Growth Rate Based Average Company Guidance a,b 50% 50% 50%
Trailing P/E Ratio a 7.22 6.44 6.40
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate) 0.14 0.13 0.13


a CBPO does not pay a full U.S. tax rate.  Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect an average marginal tax rate of 36%. EPS are Non-GAAP figures and excludes non-cash compensation expense. EPS number are non-GAAP. Non-GAAP EPS Figures exclude certain non-operating gains and losses as well as certain non-cash items. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for reported, or GAAP information . For a more complete explanation of the company's definition of non-GAAP please refer to its financial press releases. The GeoTeam® non-GAAP figures may, from time to time,  differ from company supplied figures.

b. The company issued net income guidance of $18 million to $22 million, but did not provide EPS guidance.  The GeoTeam® used the March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure.  The lack of EPS guidance may cause some  investors to infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future.  However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"With the bank credit facilities that are available to us and other financing activities, we expect that cash on hand, funds generated from our operations and funds generated from companies that we may acquire in the future will be sufficient to satisfy our current and future commitments for at least the next twelve months."

Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

Date 5/15/09 5/19/09 8/17/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS $13.50 $16.00 $17.00
Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS $10.80 $12.80 $13.60
Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $12.15 $12.15 $12.15

Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

Date 5/15/09 5/19/09 8/17/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $20.25 $20.25 $20.25
Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $16.20 $16.20 $16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines.  They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.


Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Valuation Scenarios

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year Ends in December
 
Date 5/15/09 5/19/09
Price $3.90 $4.12
12 Months Trailing EPS a $0.54 $.64
2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $0.81 $0.81
2009 Implied EPS Growth Rate Based Average Company Guidance a,b 50% 50%
Trailing P/E Ratio a 7.22 6.44
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate) 0.14 .13


a CBPO does not pay a full U.S. tax rate.  Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect an average marginal tax rate of 36%. EPS are Non-GAAP figures and excludes non-cash compensation expense.

b. The company issued net income guidance of $18 million to $22 million, but did not provide EPS guidance.  The GeoTeam® used the March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure.  The lack of EPS guidance may cause some  investors to infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future.  However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"With the bank credit facilities that are available to us and other financing activities, we expect that cash on hand, funds generated from our operations and funds generated from companies that we may acquire in the future will be sufficient to satisfy our current and future commitments for at least the next twelve months."

Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

Date 5/15/09 5/19/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS $13.50 $16.00
Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS $10.80 $12.80
Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $12.15 $12.15

Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

Date 5/15/09 5/19/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $20.25 $20.25
Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $16.20 $16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines.  They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.

Thursday, May 14, 2009
Valuation Scenarios

Data Inputs:

Fiscal Year Ends in December
 
Date 5/15/09
Price $3.90
12 Months Trailing EPS a $0.54
2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $0.81
2009 Implied EPS Growth Rate Based Average Company Guidance a,b 50%
Trailing P/E Ratio a 7.22
PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate) 0.14


a CBPO does not pay a full U.S. tax rate.  Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect an average marginal tax rate of 36%. EPS are Non-GAAP figures and excludes non-cash compensation expense.

b. The company issued net income guidance of $18 million to $22 million, but did not provide EPS guidance.  The GeoTeam® used the March 31, 2009 outstanding share count of 21,434,942 to calculate an implied 2009 EPS figure.  The lack of EPS guidance may cause some  investors to infer that dilutive events are expected to occur in the near future.  However, per the 10K page 45, it appears that the company does not need to raise cash via a capital raise:

"With the bank credit facilities that are available to us and other financing activities, we expect that cash on hand, funds generated from our operations and funds generated from companies that we may acquire in the future will be sufficient to satisfy our current and future commitments for at least the next twelve months."

Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

Date 5/15/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS $13.50
Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS $10.80
Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $12.15

Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

Date 5/15/09
Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $20.25
Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Implied EPS Average Company Guidance a,b $16.20

Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines.  They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.